At the moment the United States is THE world power, but that will change…

China still has a lot of areas which need to and will be updated to the most modern technology. They will eventually have tractors for all farms, for example. Because of the potential there and the lower base they are starting from (a tractor can instantly double output versus human power), it is virtually inevitable that within a few decades they’ll be at least half as productive as the United States.

Half as productive? That doesn’t sound like much, but it suggests a per capita GDP (gross domestic product) of $23,000 (half of the U.S. per capita GDP in 2008). Multiply that times a population of 1.33 billion people and they’ll have an economy of 30.6 trillion dollars, more than double the size of the United States economy (13.8 trillion as this is written). It is basic math. If each person produces only half as much but there are four times as many people, total production will be twice as high.

A larger economy means more potential military power, since a bigger economy means more potential tax revenue to buy more weapons. It’s assumed by many that it is a bad thing for a country to lose its dominant position as a world power, but this isn’t proven by history. The British Empire was lost, and afterwards the British people became richer as individuals than ever before. Maintaining an empire costs money.

Both India and China will be larger powers than the United States at some point in this century. But those of us who live here don’t necessarily lose anything important from the coming shifts in power. That is, unless our fear of those changes causes us to pursue expensive and dangerous policies which try to prevent the inevitable. A better plan: Live peacefully and prosper!

Here are some questions to ponder, to get you thinking about what it means for the United States to no longer be the primary world power:

1. When the U.S. is no longer the most powerful country militarily, will the people be at greater risk of wars or a loss of freedom?

2. Are there things we could do develop a healthier economy based on the coming changes?

3. What can we do individually to prepare for the changes to come?